Sri Lanka is approaching one of its most pivotal presidential elections, scheduled for September 21, 2024. This election is a significant event for the nation, marked by economic turmoil, political uncertainty, and a growing desire for systemic change. With 39 candidates vying for the presidency, the contest has narrowed down to three leading figures: incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), the leader of the National People’s Power (NPP); with the fourth-force being Namal Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). However, the complexity of the race, coupled with a fractured electorate, has raised the possibility that no candidate will secure the necessary 50% +1 of the votes in the first round. If so, Sri Lanka could see its first-ever second-round vote counting based on second and third preferences​.

The candidates at the forefront

Ranil Wickremesinghe, currently the sitting president, was not particularly popular before Sri Lanka's 2022 economic crisis. However, his leadership during the economic recovery has helped him gain support, especially among the business elite. These supporters appreciate his efforts to stabilise the country and worry that a shift in leadership could derail the recovery process. Political analysts note that while Sri Lanka's economy is still fragile, "the country is on track and may recover thanks to Wickremesinghe’s intervention." For his backers, continuity is key, and they believe that what the country needs now is stability rather than political upheaval.

Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), remains a critical figure in this race. Having secured 42% of the vote in the 2019 election, he has maintained a loyal base, particularly among working-class citizens and minority communities. However, Premadasa faced criticism for refusing to join Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government during the height of the economic crisis. Some saw this as a missed opportunity to show leadership in a moment of national urgency. Despite this, his campaign is centred on themes of reform and social justice, which resonate with large segments of the population seeking change.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) has emerged as a significant contender, especially appealing to younger voters and those dissatisfied with the traditional political elite. His anti-corruption stance and grassroots appeal have gained him traction, particularly following the 2022 economic protests. Recent polls suggest that Dissanayake has been leading the race by a considerable margin, with one survey indicating 59% support. However, questions remain about whether his surge in popularity will translate into votes at the polls. Despite his rise, some sceptics point to his lack of administrative experience as a potential hurdle to his candidacy.

Namal Rajapaksa’s candidacy represents an attempt by the Rajapaksa family to regain its political foothold. However, his chances of winning are considered slim, with polls indicating that he trails behind the other three candidates. Namal’s challenge lies in shedding the negative legacy of his family, which is widely blamed for the economic collapse in 2022. Despite being part of the Rajapaksa dynasty, Namal attempts to rebrand himself as a modern, youth-oriented leader. Still, public scepticism remains high, particularly among minority communities such as Tamils and Muslims, who hold the Rajapaksa family responsible for past human rights violations​. His entry into the race appears to be more about preserving his family’s political legacy rather than winning, with many viewing his bid as a test run for future elections​

Tamil and Muslim voting dynamics

Tamil voters: a complex decision

The Tamil vote is equally fragmented but could be decisive in a second-round scenario. Due to historical grievances, many Tamil voters remain sceptical of both Sinhalese parties, the UNP (Ranil) and SJB (Sajith). Distrust of significant parties has made some Tamil voters more open to supporting Dissanayake, who they see as outsiders to the entrenched political elite. However, his Marxist past and association with Sinhala nationalist movements may still limit his appeal among more conservative Tamil voters.

That said, pragmatism versus idealism is likely to shape Tamil voting patterns. While some Tamil voters are drawn to the idealism of Dissanayake’s platform, others may opt for Premadasa or Wickremesinghe, believing that these candidates can offer more concrete benefits, such as regional autonomy or economic stability. Additionally, the second and third preferences of Tamil voters could play a decisive role if the election goes to a second round.

Muslim voters: divided allegiances

The Muslim electorate, traditionally seen as a critical swing vote, appears to be split into three key groups in this election. Business elites are expected to support Ranil Wickremesinghe due to his focus on economic stability. Wickremesinghe’s government has earned favour with this group by stabilising the economy post-crisis, which aligns with their priority of maintaining continuity in governance. Meanwhile, traditional Muslim political followers are more likely to vote for Sajith Premadasa, as his SJB party has historically garnered support from Muslim political leaders and the electorate aligned with them.

However, the most significant shift seems to be occurring among Muslim youth and reform-minded Muslims, who are leaning heavily toward Anura Kumara Dissanayake. This group is driven by disillusionment with the existing political system and a desire for genuine change, which aligns with Dissanayake’s anti-corruption stance and call for systemic reform. His appeal to younger voters, particularly those who feel alienated by the mainstream political discourse, has positioned him as the favoured candidate for those seeking a break from the status quo. Many believe that the number of youth and progressive-minded Muslim voters supporting Dissanayake will likely outstrip those voting for Wickremesinghe or Premadasa.

The role of second-preference voting

If no candidate wins a clear majority in the first round, second-preference votes could determine the next president—a scenario that has never played out in Sri Lankan elections. With the vote likely to be split among Wickremesinghe, Premadasa, and Dissanayake, second-preference votes could prove decisive. The Election Commission has confirmed that the second and third preferences will be counted if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote. This would make the fragmented votes of minority groups, particularly Muslims and Tamils, key to determining the ultimate winner​.

A historic election with an uncertain outcome

Sri Lanka’s 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a watershed moment for the country. With no clear frontrunner expected to secure a majority in the first round, the election is poised to enter uncharted territory. The second-preference votes, particularly from the Muslim and Tamil communities, could be the key to determining whether Sri Lanka continues with the economic stability of Wickremesinghe, opts for the reforms of Premadasa, or embraces the radical change promised by Dissanayake. Whatever the outcome, this election will have a lasting impact on the future of Sri Lanka’s political and economic landscape.​

www.slmuslims.com team